Power Up

Mukhtar Thakur

      Mukhtar Thakur is a professional engineer. He has degrees in technology management from the University of Minnesota and civil engineering from Wales in the UK. His professional work has included construction of large infrastructure projects in the U.S. and the Middle East. He was born in East Africa of Indian descent. This article is reprinted with permission from the St. Paul Pioneer Press, and Mr. Thakur would like it stated that he is strictly nonpartisan concerning political ideology.

      With President Bush in St. Paul today [May 17] to unveil his new national energy plan, Americans need to be clear about the extent and severity of existing energy problems, so the nation responds with the right solutions.
      Bush's plan comes at a time when California is spending $40 million a day and rising to support utility companies, deregulation is an issue in states across the nation, and the President has said no to the Kyoto Accord.
      Among the questions that need answers:

• What is happening to technologies and the future of fossil (oil, gas and coal) fuel?
• What does the technological future in the energy landscape hold for humanity in the foreseeable ten to twenty years? Are we near a crisis point?
• Has oil become too expensive and environmentally damaging?

Fossil Fuels
      The majority of electrical power in the United States comes from either oil, gas or coal powered facilities-not nuclear, biomass, solar or wind power.
      So the question is, how long will oil/coal last at an acceptable price?
      Oil and coal will rule the roost for the foreseeable future. They are unlikely to run out. The largest producer of oil, Saudi Arabia, continues to invest in oil exploration and production-partly to keep crude prices low and possibly as a strategic move to minimize the chances of alternative technologies reaching economically competitive status with oil.
      Saudi Arabia will remain a dominant producer of oil for decades to come. Other newer oilfields in the Caspian region continue to come onstream, helping keep oil prices low and competing technologies away.
      By the time oil does run out, it will no longer matter. Oil will last at acceptable prices for a generation or two. Bear in mind that the actual price for oil, after adjusting for inflation, is lower today than twenty years ago ($37.05 a barrel in 1981, equivalent to $59.40 a barrel in 1999 dollars). It is generally accepted within the industry that crude oil at $18 a barrel is economically viable for exploration, production and sustainability. This week, it is running at nearly $29.
      World coal reserves are high, with a supply in the United States of more than one hundred years at current rates of usage and exploration. Emissions from using coal to produce electricity continue to have an impact on its growing use. New technologies (such as the fluidized bed approach, meaning powdered coal acting as a fluid, with fewer emissions) continue to chip away at pollution.
      Many thousands (and maybe millions) of engineers, scientists and business types work worldwide to find oil, transport it, refine it, show new uses for it, market it, distribute it, lobby for it, make using it cleaner and so on. Oil has a huge in-place infrastructure that will be difficult to replace economically, politically or socially in the foreseeable future.
      This is the power of incumbency. The production cost of this oil can be as low as a dollar a barrel in places near to its transportation systems. (Saudi Arabian oil's cost factor is $1.50 a barrel, according to the Saudi oil minister). It's unlikely that any new technology can compete with oil at such a low price.
      The low price of oil allows a few years to develop new technologies and the infrastructure needed for them. Politically, overseas oil supplies pose a challenge, but oil is a commodity that will find its markets irrespective of politically imposed constraints.
      Other than as a fuel for airplanes, oil is in the process of being replaced by other technologies. However, there are limitations and drawbacks. Nuclear powered electricity, for example, has significant radioactive waste disposal issues and intense consumer resistance associated with it. No one has found a way to economically and safely store the radioactive waste stream that is generated in nuclear power plants.
      In the short term, improved exploration, supply and delivery of natural gas-using it to produce electricity-is the most sensible solution for the nation's current electricity crisis.

Fuel Cells
      This technology continues its rapid pace of development. The best-known fuel cell is based on the proton exchange membrane (PEM) technology. PEM based fuel cells produce hydrogen (which can be obtained from methanol, natural gas, petroleum or renewable sources-note, these are still fossil-based) and combine it with oxygen (from air) without combustion to generate electricity. Waste produced is typically water vapor, with zero emissions. Thus, this technology is environmentally friendly.
      The distribution infrastructure needed for the source already exists. Gas already is piped into most urban homes. Moreover, propane tanks are readily available.
      Ballard, a Canadian company, leads in the manufacture of fuel cells and is partnering with strong, world-leading companies, including DaimlerChrysler and Ford. Ballard also has supplied fuel cells to Honda, Nissan, Volkswagen, Yamaha, Cinergy, Coleman Powermate and Matsushita Electric Works, among others.
      Mobile, fuel-cell-powered test buses are operating successfully in Chicago and other cities. The European Union also has purchased a set of test buses.
      In Minnesota, 3M has been working since 1995 on manufacturing materials for the converter ("stacks") that makes hydrogen in fuel cells.
      Both stationary and mobile fuel cells will impact humanity. Typical fuel cell applications will include homes and small businesses, off-grid buildings and premium power (e.g., data centers) customers. This impact of locally available power will also be felt in the developing world.
      These distributed power sources are likely to become a reality, impacting the huge centralized power-generating plants and the attendant regulatory structure.
      Prices will need to drop before fuel cells become attractive. As manufacturing efficiency increases, led by more talent being brought to bear on innovation and working to improve all processes, costs will continue to drop.
      What this means is that "personal" power sources will be a reality, and reliance on the inefficient grid is likely to be reduced. Grid efficiency and pilferage can be reduced or eliminated by having power generators close to users.
      The adoption of this technology will reduce the need of governments in the developing world to invest in power generation and grid distribution networks and regulatory systems. People will obtain personal power plants that will not need grids.
      Fuel cells also will mean more of the world's poor can become literate, because of the increased availability of time and light. Fuel cells also will supply power to the mills to convert corn into flour, or to mill rice, thus freeing up resources for improving rural lives a notch.
      The likely time frame of adoption is the next twenty years, with the smaller inaccessible areas of the world expected to benefit first. Also, high-end adopters of this technology will include customers needing reliable electricity, such as web farms.
      Car manufacturers are trying for a much more aggressive time frame of less than ten years for vehicles powered by fuel cells. DaimlerChrysler has said it will have a fuel-celled car in production by 2004. Powered bicycles and other forms of transportation are likely to emerge using this technology. One also can envision fuel cells powering flourmills in sub-Saharan African villages.

Solar Power
      This entirely renewable source has seen a lot of research and development efforts since the 1970s, with significant efficiency gains and invention of new technologies. The cells are moving away from the "silicon" variety (as used on satellites) and into "thin film" technology to achieve greater conversion efficiency. Conversion efficiency is a measurement of how much of the sun's available power is converted to usable electricity by the solar cell. The higher the efficiency, the better the cell and also its related economics.
      Consumer acceptance and the appeal of this technology are likely to be very high, eventually driving innovation and the reduction of cost. Thin film photovoltaics, as they are known, are being manufactured in large quantities today and used as roofing shingles and cladding for skyscrapers and homes. They generate electricity, even on cloudy days, and can convert it to use in household systems.
      Also, excess electricity generated can be sold back to the grid. In times of need, power can be obtained from the grid also. Manufacturing efficiencies that will lower price and longevity hurdles remain, but usage is increasing at a rapid pace for similar reasons as for fuel cells-reliability and a lack of accessibility to existing electricity grid, particularly in the developing countries.
      Japanese and European companies currently are investing heavily in research and development of this technology-building on primary research that so far has been conducted in the United States with governmental assistance. This is primarily driven by the need of Japanese and Europeans to reduce domestic demand for fossil fuels and environmental conditions.

Wind Power
      Wind power also is a renewable power source and continues to grow in usage, as better wind power plants are made. Some predict wind power will generate five percent of total U.S. electricity by 2020. In the U.S., California and Texas dominate the production of wind power. Overseas, parts of Denmark, Germany and Spain are producers of wind energy. The UK also is siting wind turbines in the sea as a way to utilize its offshore technology base with available wind resources.
      The consumer acceptance of many ungainly turbines with blades is likely to remain an issue in urban areas. In rural areas, acceptance may well be much higher. Enron is a large provider of wind-generated power in Iowa and Minnesota.

Conservation of Energy
      Efforts currently underway include improving the efficiency of cars and updating building codes to specify energy-efficient homes and buildings. Much has been done in both areas. Much more can be done, but consumers are not driving this effort.
      Note that engineers have increased engine performance and reduced fuel usage over the years, but consumer preference has moved on to bigger, high-consumption SUVs. Consumers today have the option of buying "hybrid" cars that run on electricity and gasoline, and that give fifty or more miles per gallon, but the consumer appeal and market share of those cars remain extremely small.
      European experience has shown that even if gas prices doubled through taxation, consumers will continue to purchase cars, albeit with better fuel consumption. This regulatory action can force the purchase of fuel efficient vehicles by people who still will need a car. The human bond with cars is very strong-witness the growth of the car industry in India, China, Malaysia and other developing countries.
      The overall impact of purchasing energy-efficient cars is huge worldwide. Buildings also can be made even more energy efficient, but consumers don't reward politicians who campaign for energy conservation.

Electricity Deregulation
      All the technological developments are being watched closely by the electricity companies. Deregulation efforts, too, have an impact, but it should be noted that the current electricity crisis in California has more to do with a shortage of electricity generators than with deregulation (although deregulation played a part in fomenting the shortage).
      In most parts of the United States the prevailing consumer sentiment is no longer "NIMBY"-not my back yard-but "BANANA"-Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody. This has resulted in a shortage of power plants to produce electricity for the steadily growing demand.
      Also, given all these technologies on the horizon, electric utility executives are reluctant to build power plants that have a long payback period on investment.
      The key may well be to remember that fossil fuels are here. Much is known about their environmental characteristics. Using natural gas for turbines that generate electricity is one way to minimize some of the impacts. For the foreseeable future, consumers will have to accept that power plants are a necessity for their well-being-even in their back yard.
      Most technological innovations and breakthroughs don't happen overnight. Usage and acceptance of new technology are gradual. The technological innovations noted here will be gradually adopted by consumers over a few years.
      All this leads one to conclude that the fragmentation of market base seen in most consumer products is about to be fomented on the energy industry. This will mean new ways of thinking and managing for consumers, businesses and governments alike.
      Governments should continue to play a role in regulating energy production (and continue to fund basic research in strategically significant technologies) until such time as an alternative power generation technologies are freely available to the general public on a personal level.