Could Chechnya Become A Terrorists’ Haven?

Peter Brownfeld 

Peter Brownfeld works in the communications department of the American Enterprise Institute. 

      Afghanistan threatened America because it was a lawless country where terrorists could organize and train. For this reason America destroyed the Taliban who harbored the al-Qaeda. Because the lawless parts of the Philippines and Georgia have given haven to terrorists, the U.S. military is training the local forces and fighting these threats. A worse problem than Georgia or the Philippines and a region ripe for Afghanization has been largely ignored since the war on terror began. That region is Chechnya, which offers one of the most serious international security threats. Over the last nine years, and particularly in the last four, the Russian military has brutalized the Chechen people, thus radicalizing that conflict and creating an environment where international terrorism could thrive. What had been a secular and democratic independence movement could now be changing as extremist Islam and terrorism are becoming attractive to some Chechens and al- Qaeda’s leadership and operatives appear to be seeking a greater involvement in that conflict.

      In a twist of irony, Russia’s cooperation in the War on Terrorism has caused Washington to ignore the growing terror threat in Chechnya. The almost unbelievable level of suffering the Chechens have endured is radicalizing them and making terrorism more likely. When one considers what they have gone through, it is natural that desperation and extremism would find fertile ground.

      Chechnya has been at war with Russia twice, from 1994 to 1996 and from 1999 to the present. It is now a nation of warlords and anarchy. In the last nine years, between 180,000 and 250,000 people have been killed. Approximately 350,000 Chechens have been displaced by the fighting. These numbers are from a population of just 1.1 million. Roughly half of the population has been killed or displaced by the wars. As a means of comparison, while about 16 percent (using the conservative estimate) of Chechens have been killed, during the conflict in Kosovo 0.6 percent of Kosovars were killed. According to the International Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights,

The numbers of disappeared Chechens in recent months indicate a continuing assault against the Chechen people that borders on genocide.

      Chechnya, which is the size of Connecticut and has the population of Vermont, has approximately 80,000 Russian troops in it, troops that regularly commit atrocities with no accountability. Almost every village and town in Chechnya has repeatedly endured so-called “mopping up” operations, during which Russian troops loot, beat, rape, extort, and illegally execute and detain Chechen civilians. One more frightening statistic: Russian authorities have designated approximately 73 percent of Chechen territory environmentally contaminated.

      If such a hellish environment continues, young Chechens will not reject terrorism. Carrying their fight abroad and allying with a bin Laden will seem acceptable. Despite a diaspora of 100,000 Chechens in Russia, Chechens rarely carry the war outside their borders. The fear of more attacks like the one at the Moscow theater last fall should cause concern in the Kremlin. Of greater concern for the West is that Chechnya could serve as a base and recruiting ground for al Qaeda or other terror networks.

      Last week, Chechen foreign minister Llyas Akhmadov, speaking at a New Atlantic Initiative meeting in Washington, said that while events like the hostage standoff in the Moscow theater are now rare, the tenor of the conflict could make them more likely. Akhmadov is a part of the last elected Chechen government, which came to power in 1997.

      The Russian brutality will continue to evoke a sharp response from the brutalized. Because Chechens have “no right except to die,” the “path to radicalization is open,” Akhmadov said. “Russian policies toward Chechnya have been a factory for creating terrorism.” Every year that passes it gets worse. More terrorists are created. Akhmadov warned that young Chechens have no other training but in war. This generation has grown up with family members being killed and tortured and with much of their schooling done with Kalashnikovs. In a foreign ministry document, Akhmadov wrote,

Four years of indiscriminate warfare, ethnic cleansing operations, and international indifference to Russian atrocities has created an atmosphere of hopelessness and desperation.

      In this era of worldwide terrorist networks and alliances among disaffected groups, such as Colombian rebels and the Irish Republican Army, it should be clear how this bitter and terrorized people could align with terrorists. The warning signs are already there. Recent incidents show that Chechnya should be within the spectrum of America’s antiterrorism efforts. In December 1996 al-Qaeda’s second in command, the Egyptian Ayman al-Zawahiri, investigated transferring the terrorist network’s headquarters to Chechnya. In the fall of 1999, three of the September 11 attackers were intending to fight the Russians in Chechnya before being told there were enough fighters there. In November 2002, bin Laden himself invoked Chechnya. In a message broadcast on al Jazeera, bin Laden said, “As you look at your dead in Moscow, also recall ours in Chechnya.”

      While Chechnya has attracted the interests of Muslim terrorists, radical Islam, which had never before been popular in Chechnya, has likewise gained a foothold there. Long beards are appearing on men, while some women are wearing the Arab-style hijab, a head-to-toe black dress that leaves only the eyes uncovered.

      Pleading for international attention and action, Foreign Minister Akhmadov wrote in a peace proposal published on March 18, 

Moscow’s policy of collective terror against the Chechen people is turning some elements of Chechen society toward irrational and undifferentiated vengeance. While the government of Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov has and will continue to condemn any terrorist acts, regardless of who may perpetrate them, a just peace is ultimately the only way to prevent this deeply alarming trend [emphasis in the original].

      A Chechen ministry of foreign affairs document similarly drew a grave picture of the potential for terrorism in that country.

Russia’s policy of collective terror and total lack of accountability is turning Chechnya into a fertile ground for terrorism. The Moscow hostage taking clearly demonstrates Chechnya’s extreme desperation and fast-growing radicalization. Undoubtedly, continuation of the war will turn at least a part of Chechnya’s armed resistance to irrational . . . violence of vengeance independent of the political agenda, which neither President Maskhadov nor anyone else would be able to control. Ending the war and solving the conflict are surely the only way to prevent this.

      This week Chechens voted on a constitution that would declare the republic an inseparable part of Russia. The reported voter turnout of about 80 percent and the overwhelming support for the proposal would appear to offer some hope for a political solution. However, this referendum was taken at the point of a gun, with 80,000 Russian troops in the country. Human rights activists have said they suspect large-scale fraud. Additionally, because of the climate of intimidation and fear, they say a fair poll could not be taken. Leading Russian human rights organizations, such as Memorial, have also criticized the poll. One suspect detail is the fact that between 27,000 and 36,000 Russian servicemen stationed in Chechnya were among the voters.

      The likelihood of this referendum leading to a final settlement seems small, because the elected Chechen leadership and the guerillas do not support it. Chechnya’s political leaders consider the relationship with Russia to be poisoned because of the brutality of the two wars. The Chechen guerillas have also rejected the Russian proposal and actively campaigned against it. With the continuing tough resistance, the opposition of the Chechen political leadership, and the poll being taken in a country occupied by a brutal army, it is hard to see the ingredients for peace through this referendum.

      The Chechen government offered a different formula for peace. Akhmadov was in Washington to promote the government’s peace proposal, which recognizes the security threat Chechnya poses to Russia, and the haven Chechnya could be for terrorists. Because of these concerns, the proposal is for a conditional independence with a period of several years of international administration that would include both United Nations peacekeeping troops and civilian administrators.

      Chechnya is not an issue that can be ignored. Should the radicalization and Islamization of that conflict continue, Western security interests will be in danger. The irony of Washington’s hesitancy to criticize Moscow for its record in Chechnya is that this policy has worsened the international security climate. Past experience in Afghanistan should spur Washington to address Chechnya’s plight before it becomes a terrorist haven.     Ω